The long term Indo-Russian defence ties is stable and growing despite American pressure. Though  India has made a multi billion dollar defence with US, it may not be infered as shifting its reliance on Russian defence equipment and moving towards the West. Since Modi government’s thrust on ’Make in India’ initiative, it’s more about developing its own domestic weapons industry, security officials and analysts say.

India has been the world’s biggest arms importer but now all of its major purchases contracts have  provision for joint manufacture or technology transfer and that is irrespective of which country it is dealing with.

As per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data, in last 20 years,  India purchased weapons worth $60 billion, of which 65% or nearly $39 billion were from Russia,

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has said that India intends to order weapons from the domestic arms industry worth over $100 billion over the next decade.

Though during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to Washington, India signed deals which included over one billion dollar order for GE engines for fighter jets and a possible $3 billion deal for MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones is also being discussed but it is in line with New Delhi’s desire for self-reliance in defence.

However, the moves so far will not be sufficient to end New Delhi’s reliance on Russia while stringent U.S. rules governing the sharing of military technology limit future possibilities for now.

Arzan Tarapore, an Indian security expert at Stanford University, said the deals announced during Modi’s visit “do not in themselves represent an Indian shift away from Russia.” A big shift away from Russia will take multiple decades,” he said. India still uses mostly Russian technology for traditional arms.

Howeve Russia’s unending war against Ukraine has handicapped Russia’s ability to deliver weapons and equipment. Indian Air Force (IAF) recently informed a parliamentary panel  Russia’s  can delay deliveries of spares for Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 jet fighter planes as the remaining two of the five Russian S-400 air defence systems, purchased for $5.5 billion in 2018, has also been delayed, it said.

India has also been expecting to receive two nuclear-powered attack submarines from Russia over the next few years, but these might also be delayed, defence officials said.

All such problems have compelled India to look sideways for its defence needs in view of continuous Chinese and Pakistani threats.

However, Bill Greenwalt, a former senior Pentagon official for industrial policy, said that  America’s strict control system for armaments and the restrictions it places both on technology sharing would frustrate India and would compel it to remain top importer of Russian defence equipments and arms.

Even if India can transition away from Moscow over the next few decades, Grossman said, “the U.S. will still have suspicions about how their systems are being used and how that might help the Russians in some sort of way, because of that close India-Russia partnership.”

This fear of US defence think tank despite India being their strategic ally in QUAD would keep India close to a more trusted and dependable friend – Russia.